[Rantman] Followup to the summary >> Fwd: Predicting climate change -- IPCC report Extreme Events report released today

[rPauli]

The IPCC report is just 2 days old but is creating quite a stir.    This
is perhaps expected for a summary of a full report titled: *Managing the
Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change
Adaptation*  

The report distills and delivers in one slide deck 
http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX_slide_deck.pdf.   (25
color slides)  While this summary submits strong pronouncements with a
few charts and tables,  it will be February 2012 until a report with
deeper evaluations.

We should note that the IPCC was formed at the request of the UN and the
World Meteorological organization (1988).   It is an intergovernmental
scientific body, currently with 194 member nations.   They draw upon a
works by about 2500 scientists (this report is from 220 authors and 62
countries).   *It is very important to remember that the science they do
is CONSENSUS based.   Hence it is both scientifically well trusted - AND
stands accused of understatement - since it's authors must express the
LEAST commonly acceptable expression of risk.*

Climate changes will differ greatly by region.   These regional
differences make it very difficult for the IPCC to craft accurate
predictions.  This is one reason why the IPCC adopts the ridiculously
imprecise terms like  "very likely" and "about as likely as not"  in
order to express probability.

    It is *very likely* that mean sea level rise will contribute to
    upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels in the future.

That is very likely TOO tepid and wishy-washy since last year a study in
the journal Nature reported that sea lever rise by the year 2100 will be
greater than previously thought - about a meter and a half increase.

The danger in the language of the IPCC report is that it allows an UNDER
reporting of risks.   So far, there are no scientists or science groups
speaking against the report.   One ideology based group - "Global
Warming Policy Foundation"  www.thegwpf.org/
<http://www.thegwpf.org/>    is a London-based educational charity that
hides funding sources - but does not hide their dispute about a warming
planet.  There  are no active climate scientists in the
organization.   They were formed about the same time as the climategate
email thefts and are suspected of being a secretive parallel effort to
discredit climate science. They have published no peer reviewed science
on the subject.   Dr David Whitehouse, science editor of the GWPF said
about the IPCC report:

         "Whilst it is always important to think about the future in the
        light of changes we observe to the Earth's climate, in trying to
        draw conclusions so far ahead based on what we know, the IPCC
        scientists are speculating far beyond any reasonable scientific
        justification."

The Whitehouse site offers no specifics and no studies.   It will be
difficult to find a sane and sober climate scientist to agree with their
challenge.   Most people do not want to face global warming extreme
events and so prefer to reach out for any dispute that might even
slightly challenge a prediction such as one listed "highly likely" .

This IPCC report will be most useful to negotiators next week for the
upcoming Durban discussions in South Africa  http://unfccc.int/2860.php 
where:

    *At the very heart of the response to climate change, however, lies
    the need to reduce emissions. In 2010, governments agreed that
    emissions need to be reduced so that global temperature increases
    are limited to below 2 degrees Celsius.*

RP  11-20-2012


-------- Original Message --------
Subject: 	Predicting climate change -- IPCC report Extreme Events report
released today
Date: 	Sat, 19 Nov 2011 00:23:40 -0800
From: 	rPauli <rpauli at speakeasy.org>
Reply-To: 	rpauli at speakeasy.net

	
===  language of prediction:  ========

*Term*                           Likelihood of the outcome*
Virtually certain         99-100% probability
Very likely                   90-100% probability
Likely                           66-100% probability
About likely as not    33 to 66% probability
Unlikely                        0-33% probability
Very unlikely                0-10% probability
Exceptionally unlikely 0-1% probability

* Additional terms used in limited circumstances
    extremely likely -- 95-100% probability,
    more likely than not -- >50-100% probability,
    extremely unlikely -- 0-5% probability) may also be used when
appropriate.



Extreme weather to worsen with climate change.   It is all about
adaptation - Depending on your region, you will be lucky or not.

The 25 page report was released today.   See for yourself.    Download
Summary for Policy Makers from: http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/

The most respected pronouncements on climate change come from reports
from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).   The last
reports are from 2007 and new reports are starting to come out now -
with full reports due by 2014.  

     This "special report on extreme weather," includes a range
    scenarios based on future greenhouse gas emissions.   This document
    was prepared for policy makers - It urges governments worldwide to
    draft plans to minimize the likely human and economic costs of these
    events.  The report contains grim warnings for developing nations,
    in particular, which will be more vulnerable to the effects of
    global warming and have less economic resilience to respond to
    extreme events.    The report, compiled over two years by more than
    200 scientists, was released ahead of global climate talks to be
    held next month in Durban, South Africa.

======

Models project substantial warming in temperature extremes by the end of
the 21st century.
It is *virtually certain* that increases in the frequency and magnitude
of warm daily temperature
extremes and decreases in cold extremes will occur in the 21st century
on the global scale. It is
very likely that the length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells,
or heat waves, will increase
over most land areas... a 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a
1-in-2 year event by
 the end of the 21st century in most regions...

======
It is *very likely* that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward
trends in extreme coastal
high water levels in the future. There is high confidence that locations
currently experiencing
adverse impacts such as coastal erosion and inundation will continue to
do so in the future due to
increasing sea levels, all other contributing factors being equal. The
*very likely* contribution of
mean sea level rise to increased extreme coastal high water levels,
coupled with the likely
increase in tropical cyclone maximum wind speed, is a specific issue for
tropical small island

states.

=================

The interactions among climate change mitigation, adaptation, and
disaster risk
management may have a major influence on resilient and sustainable
pathways (high
agreement, limited evidence). Interactions between the goals of
mitigation and adaptation in
particular will play out locally, but have global consequences.

=============


You can download Summary for Policy Makers from:
http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/


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