[Rantman] Predicting climate change -- IPCC report Extreme Events report released today

[rPauli]

Extreme weather to worsen with climate change.   It is all about
adaptation - Depending on your region, you will be lucky or not.

The 25 page report was released today.   See for yourself.    Download
Summary for Policy Makers from: http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/   

The most respected pronouncements on climate change come from reports
from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).   The last
reports are from 2007 and new reports are starting to come out now -
with full reports due by 2014.  

     This "special report on extreme weather," includes a range
    scenarios based on future greenhouse gas emissions.   This document
    was prepared for policy makers - It urges governments worldwide to
    draft plans to minimize the likely human and economic costs of these
    events.  The report contains grim warnings for developing nations,
    in particular, which will be more vulnerable to the effects of
    global warming and have less economic resilience to respond to
    extreme events.    The report, compiled over two years by more than
    200 scientists, was released ahead of global climate talks to be
    held next month in Durban, South Africa.

Snips below from the report - check for yourself.

RP

===  language of prediction:  ========

*Term*                           Likelihood of the outcome*
Virtually certain         99-100% probability
Very likely                   90-100% probability
Likely                           66-100% probability
About likely as not    33 to 66% probability
Unlikely                        0-33% probability
Very unlikely                0-10% probability
Exceptionally unlikely 0-1% probability

* Additional terms used in limited circumstances
    extremely likely -- 95-100% probability,
    more likely than not -- >50-100% probability,
    extremely unlikely -- 0-5% probability) may also be used when
appropriate.


======

Models project substantial warming in temperature extremes by the end of
the 21st century.
It is *virtually certain* that increases in the frequency and magnitude
of warm daily temperature
extremes and decreases in cold extremes will occur in the 21st century
on the global scale. It is
very likely that the length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells,
or heat waves, will increase
over most land areas... a 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a
1-in-2 year event by
 the end of the 21st century in most regions...

======
It is *very likely* that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward
trends in extreme coastal
high water levels in the future. There is high confidence that locations
currently experiencing
adverse impacts such as coastal erosion and inundation will continue to
do so in the future due to
increasing sea levels, all other contributing factors being equal. The
*very likely* contribution of
mean sea level rise to increased extreme coastal high water levels,
coupled with the likely
increase in tropical cyclone maximum wind speed, is a specific issue for
tropical small island

states.

===


E. MANAGING CHANGING RISKS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES AND DISASTERS
Adaptation to climate change and disaster risk management provide a
range of complementary
approaches for managing the risks of climate extremes and disasters
(Figure SPM.2). Effectively
applying and combining approaches may benefit from considering the
broader challenge of
sustainable development.

Measures that provide benefits under current climate and a range of
future climate change
scenarios, called low-regrets measures, are available starting points
for addressing
projected trends in exposure, vulnerability, and climate extremes. They
have the potential
to offer benefits now and lay the foundation for addressing projected
changes (high
agreement, medium evidence). Many of these low-regrets strategies
produce co-benefits, help
address other development goals, such as improvements in livelihoods,
human well-being, and
biodiversity conservation, and help minimize the scope for
maladaptation. [6.3.1, Table 6-1]


Potential low-regrets measures include early warning systems; risk
communication between
decision makers and local citizens; sustainable land management,
including land use planning;
and ecosystem management and restoration. Other low-regrets measures
include improvements
to health surveillance, water supply, sanitation, and irrigation and
drainage systems; climate
proofing of infrastructure; development and enforcement of building
codes; and better education
and awareness.


Effective risk management generally involves a portfolio of actions to
reduce and transfer
risk and to respond to events and disasters, as opposed to a singular
focus on any one
action or type of action (high confidence). [1.1.2, 1.1.4, 1.3.3] Such
integrated approaches are
more effective when they are informed by and customized to specific
local circumstances (high
agreement, robust evidence). [5.1] Successful strategies include a
combination of hard
infrastructure-based responses and soft solutions such as individual and
institutional capacity
building and ecosystem-based responses. [6.5.2]


Multi-hazard risk management approaches provide opportunities to reduce
complex and
compound hazards (high agreement, robust evidence). Considering multiple
types of hazards
reduces the likelihood that risk reduction efforts targeting one type of
hazard will increase
exposure and vulnerability to other hazards, in the present and future.
[8.2.5, 8.5.2, 8.7]
Opportunities exist to create synergies in international finance for
disaster risk
management and adaptation to climate change, but these have not yet been
fully realized
(high confidence). International funding for disaster risk reduction
remains relatively low as
compared to the scale of spending on international humanitarian
response. [7.4.2] Technology
transfer and cooperation to advance disaster risk reduction and climate
change adaptation are
important. Coordination on technology transfer and cooperation between
these two fields has
been lacking, which has led to fragmented implementation. [7.4.3]
Stronger efforts at the international level do not necessarily lead to
substantive and rapid
results at the local level (high confidence). There is room for improved
integration across
scales from international to local. [7.6]

Integration of local knowledge with additional scientific and technical
knowledge can
improve disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation (high
agreement, robust
evidence). Local populations document their experiences with the
changing climate, particularly
extreme weather events, in many different ways, and this self-generated
knowledge can uncover
existing capacity within the community and important current
shortcomings. [5.4.4] Local
participation supports community-based adaptation to benefit management
of disaster risk and
climate extremes. However, improvements in the availability of human and
financial capital and
of disaster risk and climate information customized for local
stakeholders can enhance
community-based adaptation (medium agreement, medium evidence). [5.6]


Appropriate and timely risk communication is critical for effective
adaptation and disaster
risk management (high confidence). Explicit characterization of
uncertainty and complexity
strengthens risk communication. [2.6.3] Effective risk communication
builds on exchanging,


======

An iterative process of monitoring, research, evaluation, learning, and
innovation can
reduce disaster risk and promote adaptive management in the context of
climate extremes
(high agreement, robust evidence). [8.6.3, 8.7] Adaptation efforts
benefit from iterative risk
management strategies because of the complexity, uncertainties, and long
time frame associated
with climate change (high confidence). [1.3.2] Addressing knowledge gaps
through enhanced
observation and research can reduce uncertainty and help in designing
effective adaptation and
risk management strategies. [3.2, 6.2.5, Table 6-3, 7.5, 8.6.3] See also
assessment in 6.6.

==========
IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Actions that range from incremental steps to transformational changes
are essential for
reducing risk from climate extremes (high agreement, robust evidence).
Incremental steps
aim to improve efficiency within existing technological, governance, and
value systems, whereas
transformation may involve alterations of fundamental attributes of
those systems.
Transformations, where they are required, are also facilitated through
increased emphasis on
adaptive management and learning. Where vulnerability is high and
adaptive capacity low,
changes in climate extremes can make it difficult for systems to adapt
sustainably without
transformational changes. Vulnerability is often concentrated in lower
income countries or
groups, although higher income countries or groups can also be
vulnerable to climate extremes.
[8.6, 8.6.3, 8.7]


Social, economic, and environmental sustainability can be enhanced by
disaster risk
management and adaptation approaches. A prerequisite for sustainability
in the context of
climate change is addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability,
including the
structural inequalities that create and sustain poverty and constrain
access to resources
(medium agreement, robust evidence). This involves integrating disaster
risk management and
adaptation into all social, economic, and environmental policy domains.
[8.6.2, 8.7]
The most effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction actions are
those that offer
development benefits in the relatively near term, as well as reductions
in vulnerability over
the longer-term(high agreement, medium evidence). There are trade-offs
between current
decisions and long-term goals linked to diverse values, interests, and
priorities for the future.
Short-term and long-term perspectives on disaster risk management and
adaptation to climate
change thus can be difficult to reconcile. Such reconciliation involves
overcoming the disconnect
between local risk management practices and national institutional and
legal frameworks, policy,
and planning. [8.2.1, 8.3.1, 8.3.2, 8.6.1]

Progress towards resilient and sustainable development in the context of
changing climate
extremes can benefit from questioning assumptions and paradigms and
stimulating
innovation to encourage new patterns of response (medium agreement,
robust evidence).
Successfully addressing disaster risk, climate change, and other
stressors often involves
embracing broad participation in strategy development, the capacity to
combine multiple
perspectives, and contrasting ways of organizing social relations.
[8.2.5, 8.6.3, 8.7]


The interactions among climate change mitigation, adaptation, and
disaster risk
management may have a major influence on resilient and sustainable
pathways (high
agreement, limited evidence). Interactions between the goals of
mitigation and adaptation in
particular will play out locally, but have global consequences. [8.2.5,
8.5.2]

There are many approaches and pathways to a sustainable and resilient
future. [8.2.3, 8.4.1,
8.6.1, 8.7] However, limits to resilience are faced when thresholds or
tipping points associated
with social and/or natural systems are exceeded, posing severe
challenges to adaptation. [8.5.1]
Choices and outcomes for adaptive actions to climate events must reflect
divergent capacities
and resources and multiple interacting processes. Actions are framed by
trade-offs between
competing prioritized values and objectives, and different visions of
development that can
change over time. Iterative approaches allow development pathways to
integrate risk
management so that diverse policy solutions can be considered, as risk
and its measurement,
perception, and understanding evolve over time. [8.2.3, 8.4.1, 8.6.1, 8.7]

===============

The interactions among climate change mitigation, adaptation, and
disaster risk
management may have a major influence on resilient and sustainable
pathways (high
agreement, limited evidence). Interactions between the goals of
mitigation and adaptation in
particular will play out locally, but have global consequences.

=============


You can download Summary for Policy Makers from:
http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/


-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://eight.pairlist.net/pipermail/rantman/attachments/20111118/1e3425b5/attachment.html>