[Neurons] 2020 Neurons #54 NUMBERICAL THINKING

[Michael Hall]

From: L. Michael Hall   

2020 Neurons #54

October 1, 2020

Reflections on Politics #9

 

NUMERICAL THINKING

 

When it comes to thinking in terms of numbers, what we call numeracy is
sadly under-developed in most people.  The average person has limited
exposure to mathematics, mathematical thinking, statistics, etc.  As a
result, if a person wants to manipulate information and distort it in their
favor, they quote statistics.  Mark Twain popularized the famous statement,
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Although it was mistakenly been attributed it to the British prime minister
Benjamin Disraeli.  Anyway, this phrase describes the persuasive power of
numbers both positively and negatively.  You can use statistics to bolster
weak arguments and you can use statistics to doubt an opponent's point.

 

Why is that?  Because numbers, by themselves, do not mean anything.  To have
a meaning, as with words, numbers need a context.  We count things and put
things in numbers, we do so to relate one thing to another.  Yet without a
context, a number can easily be blown out of proportion so that it
mis-communicates, even deceives.  To keep things in proportion and to
understand the meaning, we have to know the first context as well as the
layers of contexts behind the numbers.

 

The problem with quoting numbers is this- if numbers are presented without a
context, the numbers are probably being used manipulatively.  Typically,
they are being used as a scare tacit.  And of course, fear sells the news.
Fear is dramatic and sensational.  I see this on some news channels like
CNN.  They present the number of cases of the virus and the number of
deaths, both in the USA and in the world.  Yet without some context, those
numbers are designed to frighten people.

 
Cases   Deaths Recovered

                                                         United States
7,170,000         208,000             3,900,000 

                                                         World
33,000,000    995,000             22,800,000 

                            

Now 208,000 deaths sounds terrible!  Yet that number is not the highest
death rate number in the US, it is actually the third.  It comes after the
number of deaths by cancer and heart attacks.  To identify the context here,
you have to ask?  "How many people die in the USA normally?"  Answer: The
total number of U.S. deaths are 2,750,000, which is 1/13th of the total.
That means the total number is 13 times that number.

 

In terms of the cases, if we have 7,000,000 who hav caught the virus- that,
again, sounds horrendous.  But with a population of 328,000,000 that means
that 321,000,000 have not caught the virus even after it has been spreading
for 10 months.  So in spite of the virus being highly infectious- it has
only spread to about 1% of the population.

 


Here are the most recent numbers (this week) from the CDC (Center for
Disease Control) about the survival rate from the corna-virus.  Of those
getting the virus, how many are surviving?  The data present the rate
according to various age groups.

                               Age                         Percentage
Surviving

                             0 to 19                            99.997

                             20 to 49                          99.98

                             50 to 69                          99.5

                             over 70                            94.6

 

Statistically also, if you are under 65 years of age, you are 7 times more
likely to be struck by lightning and die than to die by covid.  As the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released this new data, they also
indicated how many Americans who have died from COVID-19 who also had other
contributing conditions.  According to the report, only 6% of deaths have
COVID-19 as the only cause mentioned, revealing that 94% of patients who
died from coronavirus also had other "health conditions and contributing
causes," among the most command are:

 
Influenza and pneumonia        Cardiac Arrest Diabetes

 
Respiratory failure                     Heart failure    Injuries

 
Hypertensive disease                Renal failure    Poisoning

              Vascular and unspecified dementia

 

"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website disclosed the
shockingly small number of people who died from only the Wuhan coronavirus,
with no other cause of death mentioned. Hold on to your hat because here it
is: out of the 161,392 deaths in the CDC data, just six percent, about 9,700
deaths, were attributed to the coronavirus alone. According to the CDC, the
other 94 percent had an average of 2.6 additional conditions or causes of
deaths, such as heart disease, diabetes, and sepsis."

 

The greatest antidote to unreasonable fear - the facts.  So, get the facts.
Use your critical thinking skills to push back against the hype.   It will
do more for your peace of mind and sanity than anything else.

 

 

 

 

 

L. Michael Hall, Ph.D.

Executive Director, Neuro-Semantics

P.O. Box 8

Clifton CO. 81520 USA

www.neurosemantics.com 

 

To unsubscribe to Neurons, send request to meta at acsol.net 

Humor is a meta-perspective about incongruity, exaggeration, playfulness,
and even absurdity.

For a touch of humor --- see the new book --- HUMOROUS THINKING  (2020)

 

 



 

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