[Rantman] Hansen essay: ... for Young People and Nature: A Path to a Healthy, Natural, Prosperous Future

[Richard Pauli]

Dr James Hansen, /et al. /wrote this early draft of an important 
document on global warming.    It offers an overview of the science and 
some good predictions, without sugar coating;  presented with both 
optimism and alarm.

It is rare to read such a ruthlessly realistic piece.   So many hopeful 
essays fail to conform to known science or will invoke unproven, magical 
engineering solutions to save our future.

Too many climate scientists are shooed away and shunned by 
politicians.   And politicians will instead invent their own scientific 
truth.    Now we have some daring policy statements and solid advice.... 
based on good science and real climate modeling.

RP

==============================================
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110505_CaseForYoungPeople.pdf

*The Case for Young People and Nature: A Path to a Healthy, Natural, 
Prosperous Future*
    James Hansen, /et al /
           (James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato, Paul Epstein, 
Paul J. Hearty, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Camille Parmesan, Stefan Rahmstorf, 
Johan Rockstrom, Eelco J.Rohling, Jeffrey Sachs, Peter Smith, Konrad 
Steffen, Karina von Schuckmann, James C. Zachos)

*Abstract.*

      We describe scenarios that define how rapidly fossil fuel
    emissions must be phased down to restore Earth's energy balance and
    stabilize global climate. A scenario that stabilizes climate and
    preserves nature is technically possible and it is essential for the
    future of humanity. Despite overwhelming evidence, governments and
    the fossil fuel industry continue to propose that all fossil fuels
    must be exploited before the world turns predominantly to clean
    energies. If governments fail to adopt policies that cause rapid
    phase-down of fossil fuel emissions, today's children, future
    generations, and nature will bear the consequences through no fault
    of their own. Governments must act immediately to significantly
    reduce fossil fuel emissions to protect our children's future and
    avoid loss of crucial ecosystem services, or else be complicit in
    this loss and its consequences.
    http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110505_CaseForYoungPeople.pdf

-snip-

    The greatest injustice of continued fossil fuel dominance of energy
    is the heaping of climate and environmental damages onto the heads
    of young people and those yet to be born in both developing and
    developed countries. The tragedy of this situation is that a pathway
    to a clean energy future is not only possible, but even economically
    sensible.

-snip-

    Science can also make clear that rapid transition to improved energy
    efficiency and clean energies is not only feasible but economically
    sensible, and that rapid transition requires a steadily rising price
    on undesirable emissions. Other actions by governments are needed,
    such as
    enforcement of energy efficiency standards and investment in
    technology development. However, without the underlying incentive of
    a price on carbon emissions, such actions, as well  as voluntary
    actions by concerned citizens, are only marginally effective. This
    is because such
    actions reduce the demand for fossil fuels, lower their price, and
    thus encourage fossil fuel use elsewhere. The price on carbon
    emissions, to be most effective, must be transparent and
    across-the-board, for the sake of public acceptance, for guidance of
    consumer decisions, and for guidance of business decisions including
    technology investments.


-snip-

    Here we summarize the emission reductions required to restore
    Earth's energy balance, limit CO2 change to a level that avoids
    dangerous human-made interference with climate, assure a bright
    future for young people and future generations, and provide a planet
    on which both humans and our fellow species can continue to survive
    and thrive.


-snip-

    The basic physics underlying this global warming, the greenhouse
    effect, is simple. An increase of gases such as CO2 makes the
    atmosphere more opaque at infrared wavelengths. This added opacity
    causes the planet's heat radiation to space to arise from higher,
    colder levels in the atmosphere, thus reducing emission of heat
    energy to space. The temporary imbalance between the energy absorbed
    from the sun and heat emission to space, causes the planet to warm
    until planetary energy balance is restored.
    The great thermal inertia of Earth, primarily a consequence of the
    4-kilometer (2½ mile) deep ocean, causes the global temperature
    response to a climate forcing to be slow. Because atmospheric CO2 is
    continuing to increase, Earth is significantly out of energy balance
    -- the solar energy being absorbed by the planet exceeds heat
    radiation to space. Measurement of Earth's energy imbalance provides
    the most precise quantitative evaluation of how much CO2 must be
    reduced to stabilize climate, as discussed in Section 2.

-snip-

    The suggestion that 2°C global warming may be a 'safe' target is
    extremely unwise based on critical evidence accumulated over the
    past three decades. Global warming of this amount would be putting
    Earth on a path toward Pliocene-like conditions, i.e., a very
    different world marked by massive and continual disruptions to both
    society and ecosystems. It would be a world in which the world's
    species and ecosystems will have had no recent evolutionary
    experience, surely with consequences and disruptions to the
    ecosystem services that maintain human communities today.  There are
    no credible arguments that such rapid change would not have
    catastrophic circumstances for human well-being.

-snip-

    The basic matter, however, is not one of economics. It is a matter
    of morality -- a matter of intergenerational justice. The blame, if
    we fail to stand up and demand a change of course, will fall on us,
    the current generation of adults. Our parents honestly did not know
    that their actions could harm future generations. We, the current
    generation, can only pretend that we did not know.


================================
This was a draft paper for:
The papers "Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change" and 
"Earth's Energy
Imbalance and Implications" have both been published in arXiv.
http://arxiv.org/abs/1105.0968
http://arxiv.org/abs/1105.1140

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